Commodity-markkinat ovat olleet viimeisen 100 vuoden aikana vaihtelevasti joko bull tai bear markkinassa. Syklin pituus on ollut keskimäärin noin 18 vuotta. Tutkimuksissa on todettu että usein silloin kun commodity markkina on nousussa niin osakemarkkinoilla ei mene hyvin. Sama toistuu päinvastoin, kun osakemarkkinoilla on mennyt hyvin commodity markkinoilla on mennyt huonosti.
1929 - 1949
Osakkeilla ei mennyt hyvin, commodity markkina nousussa.
1949 - 1966
Osakkeet olivat nousussa ja commodityt laskussa.
1966 - 1982
Osakemarkkinoilla meni heikosti. Dow Jones laski tuona aikana 1000 pisteestä 800 pisteeseen, eli 20% lasku 16 vuoden aikana ja tuossa ei ole otettu huomioon edes inflaation vaikutusta osakevarallisuuden kehitykseen. Business Week julisti 13.8.1979 että Osakkeet ovat Kuolleet. (Death of Equities)
Tuona jaksona commodity markkina oli kaikkien aikojen suurimmassa nousussaan.
1982 - 2001
Osakemarkkinoilla oli kaikkien aikojen nousu. Dow Jones nousi 10 000 pisteeseen. Useimpien raaka-aineiden hinnat laskivat.
2001 - 2020 (?)
Osakemarkkinoilla voi olla vaikeuksia tehdä uusia huippuja, ainakin inflaatiokorjattuna (koska keskuspankkipohjainen pankkijärjestelmä voi kasvattaa rahan määrää ilman esteitä niin ei ole poissuljettua että nimellisarvoisesti osakemarkkinoillakin tehtäisiin huippuja). Raaka-aineiden hinnat olivat jakson alussa (inflaatiokorjattuna) alempana kuin koskaan aikaisemmin rekisteröidyn taloushistorian aikana.
Mikä saa raaka-aineiden hinnat suuriin nousuihin ja laskuiin?
Supply and Demand. Asiasta ei oikeastaan tarvitsisi kertoa sen enempää, koska koko asia on kiteytetty noihin kahteen termiin. Noita voisi sanoa taloustieteen aapisen kahdeksi ensimmäiseksi kirjaimeksi. (Wikipedia: Supply and Demand)
Miksi raaka-aineet olivat laskussa 1982-2001?
Yksinkertaistettuna ylituotannon takia. Raaka-aineiden hinnat olivat kovassa nousussa 70 luvun ja silloin alalle yli-investoitiin. Bull jakso päättyi suunnilleen 81-82 ja sen jälkeen hinnat olivat laskussa melkein 20 vuotta. On ymmärrettävää että alalle jossa on ylikapasiteettia ja hinnat laskussa ei kukaan järkevä firma tai ihminen sijoita.
20 vuoden bear markkinan aikana sitä ennen rakennetut kaivokset alkavat ehtyä ja tuotanto alkaa laskea. Samaan aikaan raaka-aineiden kysyntä on kasvanut. Erityisesti Aasian suurten talouksien, Kiinan ja Intian, kasvun takia. Maailmassa on myös 3 miljardia ihmistä enemmän kuin 70 luvun alussa.
Nyt vuoden 2006 alussa olemme edelleen tilanteessa jossa raaka-aineiden kysyntä ylittää reilusti niiden tarjonnan. Lähivuosina tilanne menee vaikeammaksi ennenkuin se parantuu.
Tämä tietää hyviä sijoitushetkiä ja -kohteita niille, jotka ymmärtävät Big Picturen missä mennään.
posted by sku @ 9:26 PM
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